Where housing need outruns the subsidized homes meant to meet it
In a handful of Canadian metros, the households with the greatest housing need are the least likely to be in subsidized housing — need is outrunning the supply funded to meet it. Each circle is one of Canada's 41 census metropolitan areas, sized by the number of households and shaded by an investment-gap index: core housing need set against the share of renters in subsidized housing. Darker means need is outpacing the subsidized stock; the five widest gaps are ringed in coral.
Investment gap by metropolitan area
Hover or focus a bubble for detailsInvestment-gap index (IIBD-derived)
Households
Highlight
Coral ring = the five largest gaps: Vancouver, Halifax, Toronto, Victoria, Edmonton.
| Census metropolitan area | Province | Households | Core housing need | Subsidized renter households | Median household income | Investment-gap index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver | BC | 980,815 | 16.9% | 43,580 | $90,000 | +76.8 |
| Halifax | NS | 194,020 | 11.9% | 6,410 | $81,000 | +64.6 |
| Toronto | ON | 2,159,300 | 16.1% | 105,030 | $97,000 | +56.7 |
| Victoria | BC | 168,595 | 12.9% | 7,255 | $85,000 | +50.4 |
| Edmonton | AB | 532,725 | 10.6% | 14,895 | $96,000 | +49 |
| Nanaimo | BC | 47,705 | 11.2% | 1,465 | $77,500 | +47.2 |
| Barrie | ON | 76,405 | 11.6% | 2,115 | $97,000 | +46.6 |
| Calgary | AB | 547,240 | 9.8% | 14,310 | $100,000 | +44.1 |
| Abbotsford–Mission | BC | 64,995 | 9.8% | 1,860 | $91,000 | +38.8 |
| Red Deer | AB | 39,795 | 9.4% | 1,280 | $85,000 | +38.6 |
| Montréal | QC | 1,788,865 | 7.9% | 65,135 | $76,000 | +36.2 |
| London | ON | 214,935 | 10.3% | 9,060 | $79,500 | +32.3 |
| Chilliwack | BC | 40,030 | 9.6% | 1,095 | $82,000 | +31.4 |
| Oshawa | ON | 145,745 | 11.1% | 4,535 | $102,000 | +29.9 |
| Kelowna | BC | 84,755 | 8.5% | 2,575 | $85,000 | +27.8 |
| Hamilton | ON | 298,900 | 11.6% | 12,545 | $91,000 | +27.4 |
| Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo | ON | 212,950 | 9.0% | 8,060 | $92,000 | +26.6 |
| Fredericton | NB | 44,905 | 7.2% | 1,175 | $79,000 | +25.4 |
| Saskatoon | SK | 121,505 | 9.9% | 4,690 | $89,000 | +23.6 |
| Kingston | ON | 71,190 | 9.5% | 3,135 | $83,000 | +22.8 |
| Lethbridge | AB | 47,230 | 9.0% | 1,575 | $84,000 | +22.6 |
| Kamloops | BC | 44,300 | 9.6% | 1,520 | $87,000 | +20.8 |
| Guelph | ON | 62,530 | 10.1% | 2,590 | $97,000 | +17.7 |
| Moncton | NB | 65,840 | 7.5% | 2,325 | $74,500 | +16.2 |
| Ottawa–Gatineau | ON/QC | 589,620 | 9.4% | 26,900 | $98,000 | +12.8 |
| Sherbrooke | QC | 102,945 | 3.9% | 3,600 | $65,000 | +9.7 |
| St. Catharines–Niagara | ON | 174,690 | 10.6% | 7,530 | $77,000 | +9.2 |
| Peterborough | ON | 51,120 | 11.6% | 2,595 | $79,000 | +6.9 |
| Drummondville | QC | 44,955 | 3.6% | 1,465 | $64,000 | +6.3 |
| Winnipeg | MB | 321,380 | 11.1% | 17,745 | $83,000 | +6.1 |
| Belleville–Quinte West | ON | 45,270 | 11.1% | 2,275 | $78,000 | +3.4 |
| Brantford | ON | 54,565 | 9.5% | 2,300 | $85,000 | +2.9 |
| Regina | SK | 97,730 | 9.8% | 4,680 | $90,000 | +2.4 |
| Trois-Rivières | QC | 75,275 | 3.3% | 2,680 | $62,400 | +1.6 |
| Québec | QC | 381,060 | 4.7% | 16,090 | $76,500 | -0.6 |
| Windsor | ON | 161,685 | 8.0% | 7,500 | $82,000 | -20.1 |
| Saint John | NB | 55,005 | 6.2% | 2,645 | $74,000 | -26 |
| St. John's | NL | 88,300 | 9.2% | 5,125 | $85,000 | -26.3 |
| Greater Sudbury | ON | 71,970 | 8.2% | 4,525 | $84,000 | -27.3 |
| Saguenay | QC | 73,810 | 2.5% | 3,410 | $70,000 | -33.8 |
| Thunder Bay | ON | 52,850 | 8.4% | 3,625 | $80,000 | -59 |
Three things to take from the gap.
The gap concentrates
Five metros — Vancouver, Halifax, Toronto, Victoria, and Edmonton — carry the widest gaps between core housing need and subsidized supply.
Big isn't the same as underserved
Toronto and Montréal hold the most households, but several smaller metros show a proportionally larger shortfall against their need.
Some keep pace
At the other end, a handful of metros — led by Thunder Bay — show subsidized provision keeping pace with, or exceeding, measured need.
Where investment is most outrun by need.
Investment-gap index, IIBD-derived. Longer bars mean core housing need is further ahead of subsidized rental supply.
The other end of the scale.
A balanced read matters: in some metros subsidized provision keeps pace with, or exceeds, measured need. These are the five smallest (most negative) gaps — useful context, not a verdict on adequacy.
A gap is a decision waiting to be examined.
An index like this doesn't allocate housing — people and public systems do, through eligibility rules, waitlist criteria, and funding formulas. Where need outruns provision, IIBD's work is to examine those decisions: how they count need, who they screen out, and whether the outcome can be challenged and improved.
- Map how eligibility and allocation decisions define and measure need
- Surface where the data behind a decision misses lived experience
- Build practical tools partners can use to make the decision fairer
- Measure whether access actually improved